The Russian-Ukraine war can hit the global supply chains that are already constrained due to the pandemic and the worst impact will be on ongoing chip shortage because the warring nations brutally control supplies of key raw materials that go into making semiconductors, warns a report. Since Russia controls as much as 44 per cent of global palladium suppplies, Ukraine produces a significant 70 per cent of the global supply of neon -- the two key raw materials that go into making chips. The markets can expect the global chip shortage, that began with the pandemic, to worsen if the military conflict lingers on, says a Moody's Analytics report on Friday.
... and there is no stopping its pan-Islamic agenda, cautions Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India has flagged concerns over non-tariff barriers (NTBs) faced by its exporters with the Russian government, commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal said on Monday. NTBs faced by Indian exporters are mainly in sectors such as marine products and pharmaceuticals.
Jaishankar said he was confident that Prime Minister Modi and President Putin will meet for an annual summit next year.
'One lesson to emerge out of the Modi-Putin summit is that India can be more self-confident that it possesses inherent strengths to leverage its interlocutors to influence Pakistani policies,' says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
In retrospect, it appeared that the bitterness of the war was still strong and the Ukrainian success in occupying Russian territory just a few days ago had added to the complexity of the situation. The positive US response to the visit, however, remains a silver lining in the dark clouds, notes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Global oil prices have slumped and India has access to larger amounts of discounted Russian crude oil, yet refiners are not passing on their savings to consumers
Supporters of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party protest the hike in fuel prices in Pakistan.
Shipments from Russia rose nearly 33 per cent to $1.1 billion in March from $831.17 million in the previous month, which was when the country mounted aggression on Ukraine and faced sanctions from Western nations, the data accessed by Business Standard shows. Growth in imports was largely on account of oil, people aware of the matter said. The Department of Commerce is learnt to have written to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), seeking details of imports, including the payment mechanism, which India has not made public.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
Crude oil shipments from the US to India rose to the highest levels in November since the conflict began in Ukraine in late February, sparking hopes of a resurgence in oil flows from the US to the subcontinent, reveals shipping data. Shipments from the US have surged as Western nations prepare to impose additional sanctions on Russian crude flows. The US shipped around 450,000 barrels per day of crude last month to India, twice that of shipments in October, according to data from London-based commodity intelligence provider Vortexa.
Nepal's decision to ban the import of non-essential items amid depleting forex reserves may hit Indian exports. The country's central bank - Nepal Rastra Bank - last week instructed commercial banks not to open letters of credit (LCs) for importing non-essential items. This is to prevent further decline of the country's foreign exchange reserves. However, it has not issued any formal communication yet.
Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be hiked this week as oil companies prepare to pare losses accumulated from keeping rates steady for over four months in the run-up to assembly elections in five states, including UP, despite international oil prices jumping to a 13-year high of $140 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the US oil benchmark, rose to $130.50 per barrel on Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. The international benchmark, Brent crude, hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008.
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
India and Russia on Tuesday set a target of $100 billion in annual trade volume by 2030 and vowed to develop a robust bilateral payment settlement mechanism using national currencies. The two sides also inked a total of nine agreements to further broadbase cooperation in a range of areas including in the economic domain following summit talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday underlined the need for not promoting any restrictions on the supply of energy and called for ensuring stability while once again emphasising on resolving the Ukraine conflict through diplomacy.
Russia has defaulted on the supply of at least 5 cargoes or shiploads of LNG to India after its retaliatory sanctions hit one of the companies that supply gas to India, sources said. India's largest gas firm GAIL has a long-term deal to import 2.85 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum from a Singapore-based unit of Russian gas producer Gazprom. The company has since June defaulted on the supply of 5 cargoes of LNG under that contract citing difficulty in sourcing gas due to sanctions, two sources briefed on the matter said.
The government on Friday slapped an export tax on petrol, diesel and jet fuel (ATF) while also joining nations like the UK in imposing a windfall tax on crude oil produced locally. A Rs 6 per litre tax on export of petrol and ATF and Rs 13 per litre tax on export of diesel is effective from July 1, finance ministry notifications showed. Additionally, a Rs 23,250 per tonne tax was levied on crude oil produced domestically.
At $12-bn valuation, this will be India's largest FDI; deal to be announced on Saturday, says Dev Chatterjee.
'Russia has got inherent military strength, they have a very good military equipment manufacturing infrastructure and by and large they are self-sufficient in their production capabilities'
China is also providing supertankers and insurance coverage to move Russian Urals crude to PRC ports, as Moscow seeks vessels for exports after a G-7 oil price cap restricted the use of Western cargo services and insurance.
EAM Jaishankar's mission is aimed at strengthening India's strategic autonomy in a complex international environment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India's top oil and gas producer ONGC wants the government to scrap windfall profit tax levied on domestically produced crude oil and instead use the dividend route to tap into bumper earnings resulting from surge in global energy prices. The firm also favours a floor price for natural gas at $10 per million British thermal unit -- the current government-dictated rate -- to help bring deposits in challenging areas to production, two sources aware of the matter said. State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) management during discussions with government officials stated that levying windfall profit tax on domestic oil producers, while at the same time reaping rich savings from buying discounted oil from Russia was unfair.
The talks took place on the sidelines of the G-20 foreign ministers' meeting in the Indonesian city of Bali.
'And if the United States, at that time, perceives India to have welched on the deal, not been our friend, when we did so much to make it a friend, that's trouble.'
'Are we to believe that coordinated moves by the Canadian and US authorities are no longer taking place?', asks Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'What should worry India and which needs to be expressed is Russia's simultaneous proximity to both China and Pakistan from a strategic angle. That hasn't happened ever before,' says Lieutenant General Syed Ata Hasnain (retd).
The high-level talks took place in the backdrop of indications that India could buy greater volumes of discounted Russian oil and both sides were keen on having a rouble-rupee arrangement for bilateral trade.
The pipeline will enable Moscow to enter markets in Asia- Pacific region and reduce dependency on European customers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday pushed Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict in Ukraine, saying 'today's era is not of war' even as he called for finding ways to address the global food and energy security crisis.
The Americans have expended a lot of diplomatic energy to coax India into toeing their line but India has refused to buckle under pressure. As Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said, India has not taken anyone's side but its own side, points out Virendra Kapoor.
Iran's growing proximity to China may have also played a part.
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
Putin's visit comes at a time when Russia's economy is stalling as oil prices tumble
Engagement with neighbours is a strategic imperative, and not an option, asserts Rup Narayan Das.
Stocks of Indian companies with exposure to Europe fell on Tuesday amid concerns about the impact on their sales in case the Russia-Ukraine crisis worsens and the US and its allies impose economic sanctions on Russia. While top conglomerates, including Reliance Industries, the Tata group, and Aditya Birla Group, said they did not have any significant exposure to Russia, executives of some of the oil and gas, pharmaceutical, and tea companies said they were monitoring the situation closely as they earned substantial income from the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine after announcing that Russia would recognise their independence.
Trade sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US offer an opportunity for India, but the devaluation of the rouble may play spoilsport
Johnson said Modi has been 'very strong' in his reaction to what happened in Bucha in Ukraine and that everyone understands and respects New Delhi's decades-old historic relationship with Moscow.
US Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh also referred to the 'no limits' partnership between Moscow and Beijing and said no one believes that Russia would come running to India's defence if China breaches the Line of Actual Control.
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